Unemployment is officially around 10% (and there are estimates that the real unemployment is likely 20%).  It is likely that we’ll see this high level of unemployment for the next few years.  Does the recession and unemployment pose a threat to online security?

There have been a few articles linking the recession to an increase of online fraud.  Most of them are anecdotal (citing some instances of shoppers being scammed online), or bad math (saying that claims of online crime have gone up in 2008 and 2009 — forgetting that online shopping grew in those years as well).

The logic makes sense — that desperate times bring out the worst in people.  Cutting in favor of the argument is that it has never been easier to set up a website and start a (fraudulent) business.  The other way to look at it is that with individuals becoming more savvy online, fraudsters will have to be more sophisticated in their criminal activities (making it more unlikely that the newly unemployed just start committing online fraud).

Right now the jury seems to be out, but feel free to share your thoughts (or some conclusive studies on the link between online fraud and the recession).

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Here’s an original question for you to ponder — Is the recession over?  I know, your head hurts because you’ve never thought about this.  But pick yourself off the floor, take an aspirin and think about the question.  We all have our favorite gauges of whether things are getting better.  Mine is the restaurant test.  Throughout the economic apocalypse, my wife and I continued to go out to dinner.  And since we are creatures of habit, we go to the same 4-5 places.  In March, you could get a table at any time and the service was great.  This Fall, we’ve noticed it is getting harder to just walk in on a Thursday night (especially when I forget to wear a shirt…dang Houston’s dress code can be picky).  So, by my very scientific calculation, we are heading out of the recession.  My Grandma Nanners also claims that times are getting better, because they are charging more that the Country Harvest Buffet.  Let me tell you, Nanners can eat about 5 servings of mashed potatos…what am I writing about?  Oh yes, the recession.

Well, according to a recent report from eMarketer, things are looking up for online shopping in 2010 and 2011.  In 2009, U.S. online shopping was $139B.  While that is a lot of activity, that number is actually down .4% from the 2008 number.  In 2010, eMarketer projects an improvement from 2009, with U.S. sales going up significantly in 2011.

We’d like to know what you’re seeing out there — are you planning for a better 2010?

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